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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising collectively. In an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still