A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
